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Starting Ethereum dev here full of dApp projects. My concern is fees. Most of my applications are unfeasible at the current gas prices. How could I sell a digital product that costs 10 dollars with a 17 dollars fee? Just doesn't work.

But.. Ethereum is promising to reduce fees for a long time, hard forks, PoS, London, etc. Yet in every article about it, I don't see solid numbers on actual fee reduction. If fees are dropping from 17 to 12 dollars per smart contract transaction, it's still unfeasible. At 8 dollars, still unfeasible. For some projects to be viable we need fees in the cents range.

My question is: What can we expect in terms of gas fees reduction after London? What about after Eth 2.0?

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  • Down. Another pump&dump phase with ETH topping at 4K has been completed, now the liquidity is being withdrawn from the markets. When liquidity runs out gas prices go down. Curren economic trend is deflationary, with USD going higher within coming years so gas prices will be lower.
    – Nulik
    Commented Jul 31, 2021 at 14:21
  • Eth 2.0 doesn't solve scalability problem, Main Net will stay the same as it is now. Because there is no way to do synchronous calls between shards, the whole Eth 2.0 is useless, it is the same as running Polygon or Arbitrum in parallel
    – Nulik
    Commented Jul 31, 2021 at 14:21

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The actual dollar price depends on two factors: Ether price and gas price (or its equivalents after EIP-1559). Estimating the Ether price is totally not for this forum, so we should only try to consider the gas fees.

There are two bigger incoming changes: Eth2.0 and Layer 2 solutions. The latter is already well on its way and in my opinion its effects are already felt with lower gas prices in mainnet. The more transactions are moved to Layer 2, the less pressure there is in the mainnet. On the other hand, there may simply come more users to bring the gas prices up again in mainnet.

Eth2.0 is not really aimed at gas reductions. Its main aim is scalability: how to get more throughput from the network. It will probably influence gas prices as well, but nobody really knows how.

London hard fork will also not influence gas prices directly. Its aim is to make gas prices more predictable. Probably it will also have some influence on the gas prices, but again, nobody really knows how.

So, as expected, I can't really give you any exact answer.

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  • Fair enough. Tough times for devs to decide which blockchain to develop on. I love Ethereum but at the current prices, it just doesn't work for some applications. Let's hope the effects of the forks are incredibly positive.
    – sigmaxf
    Commented Jul 31, 2021 at 18:21

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