I am trying to estimate how many of the pre-sale coins are in circulation. What fraction of pre-sale coins have been moved?


This calculation is probably wrong, but I'm working on getting all of the kinks worked out. Apparently geth cant handle 9000 calls at once :(

By my calculations, there were around 45 million presale Ether (in actuality, there were probably 60 or 70 million), and the net change in account balances is around 40 million (meaning the sum of the absolute change in balance in all presale accounts is around 40 million). Thus, assuming no one transfered between presale accounts or recieved mining funds (not a great assumption), about 88% of presale ETH has been moved. This is obviously a gross overestimate, but it's the best I could come up with.

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    45 million pre-sale Ether sounds wrong. There are about 77 million now, and about 1 million blocks. Each block produces about 7 Ether, so there should be about 70 million pre-sale Ether. No? – Randomblue Feb 16 '16 at 7:14
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    Yes, it is wrong. My node crashed halfway through the calculation and I just noticed. I'll add a disclaimer and try to find a fix. – Tjaden Hess Feb 16 '16 at 7:15

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