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As explained in the Ethereum github's wiki the gas price is set by miners and the only way to guess the acceptable value is to look at the last block gas price. Then you look at the lowest and highest prices on the block and next block price should fit close to these values. Looking at more blocks in the past could give you a trend to guess if the price raises or goes down. But there is also a part of random, at least in Geth, so you can't exactly predict the gas price but only be close to the future block price. I think you can't be more accurate than geth gas price oracle.