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As the question says -
Does receiving a transaction receipt guarantee the transaction will be executed, assuming the transaction has a reasonable gas price, there are few enough transactions with a low enough gas price ahead that the transaction isn't forgotten, and the miners don't conspire not to mine said transaction?

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The receipt guarantees more than "will be executed" - it guarantees "was executed".

But unfortunately, it doesn't guarantee that it will not be rejected at a later point by the nodes on the network.

In fact, nothing does. But the longer it stays there, the higher the probability is that it will remain there forever.

It is custom to wait 12 blocks before assuming that it is there "for good".

More practically - count 12 blocks from the block-number on the receipt, and then make sure that the transaction-hash is still valid.

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