I know Vitalik has talked about using prediction markets as a way for community members to decide on forks.

There are basically 3 proposals that I've seen.

  1. Hardfork to return all funds to the DAO
  2. Softfork to freeze the stolen funds (but not return them)
  3. Do not fork at all and let the thief keep their winnings

There are strong feelings for and against these proposals but I think the vast majority of people are arguing their side because they want Ethereum to continue to thrive.

If there were a prediction market that definitively showed that one of these proposals was better for the ETH/USD trading price, I would certainly switch to supporting that stance. Is this type of thing being done?

  • Should ask on a reddit Ethereum trading site. This question it too subjective Jun 18, 2016 at 19:53
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    @NicolasMassart I'm not asking for an opinion. I don't believe my question is subjective, nor is it about trading Ethereum.
    – Alex L
    Jun 18, 2016 at 19:59
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    Sorry if I misunderstood your question. I thought that you were asking for market prediction. Read to fast obviously... Jun 18, 2016 at 20:00

2 Answers 2


We (Reality Keys) had a couple of conversations with people interested in setting up these markets, and set ourselves up to provide signed data about whether there had been a fork or not at various dates.

Unfortunately the fork came up on us quite fast, so I don't think anybody has had time to get a market working. If it had taken a few weeks longer, I think it would have happened.

It might be useful for future forks for Ethereum to have a way to query whether a particular feature is enabled at a particular time, so you could call something like is_ethereum_feature_enabled("dao-hard-fork"), then you could do this without needing to trust an external data source.


The answer to this is simple. No one knows. To provide any other answer would be speculative. However if a fork occurs, which has not been decided based on my current research, we will be happy to answer any non speculative questions related to it. I.E. how to implement it in your software with an upgrade.

In summary, Your question requires speculation which has no quantifiable answer.

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    No, the question seems to ask if there is a speculative study based on market prediction. So the answer is either yes and a link or no. The question doesn't ask for the result of such a study. Jun 19, 2016 at 12:50

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