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I've been using this difficulty bomb script, but when I run it... it shows not too accurate predictions. I'm interested on the predictions about how would be the behaviour of the diff bomb since block 200,000 till now.

Any help to fully understand it? why is it taking the hashrate and diff from may 10, 2016?

And yes, obviously I'm a neophyte.

  • Why do you say the predications aren't accurate? What do you mean by the behaviour from block 200,000 until now? Predictions would be meaningless when talking about past blocks... because it's not a prediction. It's taking the hashrate from the 10th of May because that's when the script was written, and all future predictions are based on those seed values. – Richard Horrocks Jun 4 '16 at 22:02
  • That's right, those aren't predictions when we are talking about past blocks. But if you run the script, you'll be able to see that the diff from the block 200.000 until now... aren't equivalent (on the time) for the diff registrered here etherscan.io/charts/difficulty. Not even close. – Sirvaude Jun 5 '16 at 8:01
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you might look at this post that explains how the difficulty is calculated

the script tries to predict diff from the 10th of may taking various params at that date into account

should you like to compare a prediction from block 200 000 to now with the reality you'd have to rewrite the script with a state prior to that block

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My script is based on the one by Christof Jentzsch, and in my eyes a little bit more beautiful ;-)

But if you run the script, you'll be able to see that the diff from the block 200.000 until now... aren't equivalent (on the time) for the diff registrered here etherscan.io/charts/difficulty. Not even close. – Sirvaude Jun 5 at 8:01

That's true because the difficulty bomp is not the only factor that affects mining difficulty. And thus it's only a prediction, because there is always the unknown factor of actual mining hashrate on the network.

May 10 was the day I ran this script. I took the difficulty/hashrate values from the blockchain on that day. Block 200k is the block where the difficulty bomp activates on the network.

Also check out this thread with a quote from Vitalik Buterin which basicly states this script is not accurate anymore as the difficulty bomp was weakened in the Homestead release to give more time for Serenity.

TL;DR Blocktime will be annoying in second half of 2017 and the final doom happens somewhere in 2021. – 5chdn May 11 at 8:29

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