How safe is the assumption that, 10 years from now, it will take a certain amount of time (say, ~16s) to mine a block?

If we cannot safely assume future block solving times, how else can we measure time, given that reading the timestamp of a single block isn't very reliable? (Maybe average several blocks' timestamps?)

  • After proof of stake is released, the variance will go down but still be unpredictable due to stakers that go offline. If you want something to happen in ten years, do you really care if it's off by a few seconds? – carver Sep 9 '17 at 13:38
  • I see. A few seconds is not important. There can be ~5% margin of error. I just don't want to assume x seconds per block, and then have proof of stake or whatever future protocol take x/6 seconds per block. – will_durant Sep 11 '17 at 0:01
  • Yeah, much better to just rely on block.timestamp. The new block time isn't set in stone, but it will be shorter. – carver Sep 11 '17 at 0:29

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