5

How can I calculate the average time to mine a block knowing the current global hashrate?

My first gues is very simple: (global_hashrate / my_hashrate) * 15 [s]. So in my case (850 000 H/s) it will be

(887 [GH/s] / 850 [kH/s]) * 15 [s] = 1.04 * 1 000 000 * 15 [s] = 180 [days]

Am I right?

4

That's a good approximation and I just did the same math with my personal stats and can confirm the result is realistic.

 network hashrate / personalrate * blocktime                 = time to find a block
(921.6       GH/s / 63      MH/s * 15 s)                     = 219428.571 seconds
(921600000000 H/s / 63000000 H/s * 15 s) / (24h * 60m * 60s) = 2.54 days

You can compare these numbers with my miners stats:

1083687 Tue Mar 01 2016 16:59:05
1069078 Sat Feb 27 2016 18:22:20
1055675 Thu Feb 25 2016 02:43:03
1040935 Mon Feb 22 2016 04:26:17
1024940 Fri Feb 19 2016 00:17:33
1012215 Tue Feb 16 2016 11:02:59
1000411 Sun Feb 14 2016 01:52:01
 987598 Thu Feb 11 2016 12:48:10
 975938 Tue Feb 09 2016 05:35:37
 964290 Sat Feb 06 2016 22:05:15
 952640 Thu Feb 04 2016 14:37:55
         ...

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