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Let's say I want to know at Block N + mempool what Block N+1's state will likely be before block N+1 is mined.

What's the best way to compute the effect of Tx's in the mempool?

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Mining a block should give you the next state. The problem is that miners use different strategies so is hard predicting which transaction they will include. If you want to try I'd start using the geth algorithm.

Also you should consider that with flashbots a miner may include transactions that aren't in the pending pool.

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